On 10 July 2026, Itac initiated both a anti-dumping and safeguard investigations into cold-rolled steel, with the anti-dumping investigation focusing on China. Primary steel is now the most protected sector in Sacu, with these two cases adding to the duty load. The effect of this is to create an arbitrage, where it becomes more attractive to import products made from steel rather than the steel itself, eroding the whole value chain. When you import the downstream products, you not only lose the downstream manufacturing, but you also lose their consumption of the local raw material, creating a death spiral for the whole value chain.
The world is awash with steel, yet in this environment, South Africa is still subsidising the creation of yet more steel production through its support (subsidies and cheap finance) to the steel mini-mills. Of course this places even greater pressure on the local steel price which cannot be offset by endlessly raising duties. Between subsidies, tariffs, permits, temporary rebates, anti-dumping and safeguard duties, the steel sector is complex beyond all belief. In this environment, circumvention of duties will thrive. In such complexity it also become increasingly difficult to detect circumvention, creating a whole new set of risks for local producers and legitimate importers.
Both the anti-dumping and safeguard investigations were brought by ArcelorMittal South Africa (Amsa). Together they cover around R3.05 billion worth of imports.
The requested duties
At present there is a 10% duty on cold-rolled steel, unless you import from a trade agreement region like the EU. In addition to this, Amsa requested anti-dumping duties of 119% against cold-rolled steel from China.
Amsa have requested safeguard duties of 40%, which can all agree is a lot, especially given they will cover pretty-much the whole world, including regions like the EU which we have trade agreements with.
If both matters succeed, these duties will accumulate. In other words, if you import from China you will pay 169% import duty (10% + 119% + 40%) on the overlapping tariff codes.
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The anti-dumping case on cold rolled steel from China
The investigation covers cold-rolled (cold-reduced) flat-rolled products, whether in coils or cut-to-length. The subject products are classifiable under tariff subheadings 7209.16, 7209.17, 7209.18 an 7225.50.
According to Itac, there is prima facie evidence that the products are being dumped into the Sacu market, causing material injury to the domestic industry.
If this no one opposes the application, the 119% anti-dumping duties which will be imposed. What matters most in such matters is that the Chinese producers respond. Yes, it is essential that the importers and even more importantly, the users of the product locally respond, but if no Chinese producers respond, it will be difficult to get a lower duty than that requested.
Interested parties have until 9 August 2026 to file their responses. And yes, obviously, you should contact XA to assist you at info@xagta.com
The safeguard application on cold rolled steel
Unlike the anti-dumping duties, which apply only to the target country, safeguard duties, if implemented, will apply to the whole world (with some minor exceptions). Exporters are far less consequential here, but if you import or use cold-rolled steel, then responding in this case is very important indeed.
If imposed, safeguard duties remain in place for three years, but need to be reduced each year, until they end at zero after year three.
The subject products are classifiable under the following tariff subheadings 7209.15, 7209.16, 7209.17, 7209.18, 7209.25, 7209.26, 7209.27, 7209.29, 7211.23, 7211.29, 7211.90 and 7225.50. Those highlighted in blue appear in both investigations.
The notice lists tariff subheading 7209.29, which does not appear to exist in the South African tariff schedule. This may be a typographical error.