Earlier in October 2025, the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade released its latest G20 Trade Policy Factbook. The report shows that trade activity among G20 members remains high and increasingly complex. Although the total number of trade measures in 2025 is below the COVID-19 peak, it exceeds 2023 and 2024 levels, suggesting that trade activism is on the rise again.
Why the change?
The Factbook highlights several important shifts shaping trade in 2025:
-
Tariffs are back. After years when subsidies were the main form of market intervention, tariff increases have re-emerged as a key barrier to market access. Many governments are using tariffs to shield local industries from foreign competition.
-
Liberalisation becomes more selective. Rather than broad tariff cuts, G20 members are introducing targeted import and export liberalisation measures. This means markets are opening in some areas while closing in others.
-
Security now drives trade policy. A growing number of measures are being justified on national security and geopolitical grounds. The United States has expanded restrictions on both imports and exports, while China’s controls mainly target its export flows.
The Factbook also notes that global investment trends are diverging. U.S. foreign direct investment continues to rise, while EU investment has slowed, reflecting uncertainty and weaker growth prospects. Despite discussions around “de-risking”, G20 trade relationships remain largely unchanged since 2019, showing that supply chains are more resilient than expected.
What happens next?
The Factbook signals that 2025 will bring a more fragmented and politicised trade landscape. For businesses and policymakers, this means:
-
More compliance complexity. As tariffs and security-based trade measures expand, firms will need to track and adapt to frequent regulatory changes.
-
Higher operational costs. Increased administrative steps and permit requirements could raise the cost of exporting or sourcing inputs across borders.
-
Sector-specific risks. Industries tied to technology, energy, and critical minerals are likely to face more government scrutiny and export restrictions.
-
Growing focus on resilience. Policymakers are prioritising “strategic industries” and domestic production capacity, often at the expense of open-market principles.
On the services side, the Factbook shows that telecommunications and IT services are growing steadily, while travel services remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Key insights
-
The trade landscape is shifting from efficiency to security. Economic policy is now about resilience and control, not just growth.
-
Selective liberalisation creates uneven opportunities. Companies may find new openings in specific sectors or markets even as others tighten access.
-
Digital services are the new trade frontier. As goods trade faces more barriers, cross-border digital services are expanding rapidly, an area where regulation still lags behind innovation.
-
Investment divergence could reshape alliances. The growing gap between U.S. and EU investment trends hints at broader policy and competitiveness differences that may influence future trade negotiations.
Why this matters
The 2025 G20 Trade Policy Factbook paints a picture of a world where countries are becoming more strategic, protecting what they see as essential and liberalising where it serves domestic interests. For businesses, this means planning for a less predictable trade environment and strengthening the ability to adapt quickly to policy shifts.